Surprises in the WTA are present in the world of tennis, this is an exciting playground that offers a high level of entertainment for fans. With the Women's Tennis Association and the Professional Tennis Association governing the women's and men's professional tournaments respectively, surprises are common and can change the course of a tournament in an instant. But are they more prevalent on the men's or women's circuit? This article aims to explore the surprises in both circuits to answer this question.
Table of Contents
- The surprises in WTA how to characterize them?
- The heterogeneity of the Top10
- The lack of knowledge of the bettors
The surprises in WTA how to characterize them?
An upset can be defined as an unexpected or unforeseen result in a tennis tournament. This is most often characterized in sports betting by a little known player who wins against a favorite and therefore against the odds defined by the bookmakers.
In tennis, when you bet on which player will win, there are only two possibilities: either player A wins or player B does.
In our study we will make several assumptions, namely:
- A player is defined as a favorite if he/she has odds below 1.80; this will avoid undecided matches and odds variations.
- Games that end in a player's withdrawal or exclusion are excluded.
- The quotations are taken based on the database of Tennis-data.co.uk
In order to compare the ATP and the WTA the objective is to compare the ratio of victory of the favorite player over the whole year 2022 to have a consistent comparison (2093 matches in WTA and 2405 in ATP) and here are the results :
- 1661 matches won by the ATP favorites or 69.06%.
- 1452 matches won by the WTA favorites or 69.37%.
The results are astonishing and perfectly contradict this false belief since the favorites win more often than the favorites in the year 2022! Of course, you are free to compare the other years to verify this hypothesis even more precisely.
The heterogeneity of the Top10
One of the factors that can influence the surprises on the women's circuit is the heterogeneity of the top 10. Indeed, the quality and competitiveness of the players in the top 10 are often very close, which can make it difficult to predict results. This heterogeneity therefore regularly allows unknown players to shine at certain times, which can also contribute to greater uncertainty in the matches and a greater number of reversals.
We notice that between the beginning of the 2022 season and the end of the 2022 season, 6 new players make up the Top10 of the ranking, that is to say more than half of the workforce that is renewed.
If we compare with the ATP only Carlos Alcaraz, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz finish the season 2022 in the top 10 so it is 2 times more stability for this year in the final ranking compared to women.
The lack of knowledge of the bettors
This false belief is fueled by frustrated bettors who seek to justify poor choices and thus exhibit the famous Dunning-Kruger.
In addition to the heterogeneity of the top 10, it is important to consider the lack of bettors' expertise in estimating WTA results. Bettors may tend to overestimate the most well-known players and underestimate emerging talent, which can lead to surprises in results.
The women's circuit offers a playground for players who stand out from the crowd. Emerging talent can win against the more experienced players, making for exciting matches. Unexpected matches are as common as in the ATP, with little-known players suddenly able to surprise the favorites. High-risk tournaments, such as the French Open, are also opportunities for WTA players to perform.
Don't confuse surprise with difficult to predict results. Surprises" often come from tournaments that are difficult to predict because of unusual weather conditions, new surfaces or because of a poor track record for young players in particular.
It is up to the bettors to make the right choices and avoid falling into the trap!
Ultimately, surprises are common in both tennis circuits. Emerging talent can bring a new dimension to WTA tournaments, while established players can surprise in ATP. Although both organizations have their own style, surprises can happen at any time and bring new excitement to tennis. The outlook for the future is promising, as new talent will continue to emerge and change the course of tournaments.
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